I'm a little nervous about this one because Milwaukee has been on fire and Eric Lauer regression is also coming, but the model likes this for 6.45 total runs. I know that's because the model is going off of Lauer's hot start and Spencer Strider's work out of the pen, but I do think there's a shot that Lauer/Strider/Chavez do actually keep this thing in check until we get to two fairly solid bullpens.