CLE

(+116)

CLE +1.5

(-165)

We're going straight upset here. The model wants us to focus more on Smeltzer's 5.19 SIERA and less on his ERA. The Guardians also have the better bullpen and have a slightly better performing offense over the last month. Our model likes Cleveland by 0.33 total runs today, so you can roll the dice with me on that or just take the runs.