PIT

(-114)

PIT +1.5

(-181)

Our model actually has the Pirates favored by 0.18 runs here. The Cubs have not been pitching well of late, and Kilian himself has not looked that good. Neither has Brubaker, but he's been the better of the two and the Pirates may get a little spark with Oneil Cruz debuting today. The riskier bet is the ML, but you could take the runline in a small parlay as well.