Under 43.5

-110

"I don't see how any Miami total can be this high. The offense is completely inept without Tua, for all his flaws. And the Colts are bringing back Anthony Richardson, who ranks 35th in EPA+CPOE composite, ahead of only Bryce Young. "

PHI -3

-120

"I know I'm on the opposite side of some smart people here, but the Andrew Thomas injury was enough to push me to take Philly. He's been a monster for them, and I was already concerned about this line coming into the season. I know Malik Nabers is back, but I think Philly is on a different level than the G-Men, who struggled to move the ball on a terrible Bengals D while also getting gashed by a similarly talented passing game on the other side of the ball. "

TB +3.5

-110

"I like the matchup of this Bucs passing offense against this Baltimore defense. That group simply hasn't shown it can slow down competent passing games, getting run over by the Chiefs and Bengals while also allowing the big Raiders comeback. Washington also moved the ball throughout the game, they just couldn't get a stop. Maybe the same will be true of Tampa, but they're getting healthier with Antoine Winfield Jr. back and playing at home in primetime. They should be ready to go."